Population and Water Demand Projections
The first step in revising the 2001 Regional Water Plan is the revision of population projections for the period 2000 through 2060, since population projections are the basis for projecting municipal water demands. The TWDB prepared population projections for counties, cities with populations of 500 or more in 2000, water supply corporations, and special utility districts having volumes of 280 acre-feet or more in 2000, and county other in the 20 and one-half county South Central Texas Region. The 2001 Plan used population projections that were based upon information from the 1990 U. S. Census. The population projections to be used in the 2006 Plan are based upon information from the 2000 U. S. Census. These updated projections are based on the numbers of persons reported in each county and city in April of 2000 for each of 4 ethnic groups (Anglo, Hispanic, Black, and Other), net migration into and out of each county between 1990 and 2000 by ethnic group, birth rate projections for each ethnic group, and survival rates for each ethnic group. The projections methodology takes into account the trends of net migration between 1990 and 2000, and projected trends in birth and survival rates for the period 2000 to 2060.
The Table shows projections for Water User Groups (WUGs) including: (a) individual cities, (b) water supply corporations, (c) special utility districts, and (d) county other. The WUGs are listed in alphabetical order. The population of cities is the number of persons projected to reside in and be supplied water by the respective city's water utility, unless otherwise specified. The population of water supply corporations and special utility districts is the number of persons projected to reside in the service areas of the named corporation or district. County other includes the persons residing within the county, but not in cities or water utility service areas. It is presumed that the population of "county other" will meet its own water needs by obtaining water from individual household wells or other sources, including water supply systems that are smaller than the systems for which projections have been made (had less than 280 acre-feet of deliveries in 2000).
Water Demand Projections
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Water Demand Projections [357.7(a)(2)(A), (B), & (C)] for Water User Groups including:
1. Cities with population greater than 500;
2. Retail public utilities in counties that have less than five retail public utilities which provide more than 280 acft/yr;
3. Individual retail public utility or collective data for all such retail public utilities that form a logical reporting unit, such as being served by a common wholesale water provider or having a common source or other association appropriate for the area, in the judgment of the regional water planning group, for counties with more than five retail public utilities which provide more than 280 acre-feet per year for municipal use;
4. Rural and unincorporated County Other;
5. Municipal (including categories 1 through 4 above);
6. Manufacturing;
7. Irrigation;
8. Steam-Electric Power Generation;
9. Mining; and
10. Livestock.
A. Water Demand for Water User Groups (categories 1 through 10 above) without water savings from plumbing fixtures identified in Chapter 372 of the Texas Health and Safety Code. (Categories of water use for each county or portion of a county in the regional water planning area are to be reported. If a county or portion of county is in more than one river basin, data shall be reported for each river basin.)
B. Water Demand for Wholesale Water Providers without water savings from plumbing fixtures identified in Chapter 372 of the Texas Health and Safety Code. (If Wholesale Water Provider service area is located in more than one river basin, data must be reported for each river basin.) Wholesale Water Providers' current contractual obligations to supply water will be reported along with any projected demands.
C. Adjustment to projected municipal water demands due to water savings that can be obtained by using plumbing fixtures identified in Chapter 372 of the Texas Health and Safety Code. The SCTRWPG will determine the extent to which such plumbing fixture water savings impact projected municipal water use using parameters approved by the TWDB [TAC 357.7(a)(2)(C)]. Net water demand with plumbing fixture savings taken into account will become the Base Case water demand for estimating projected municipal water surpluses and shortages.
D. A comparison will be prepared of population and water demand projections in the 2001 Regional Water Plan to the revised projections for the 2006 Regional Water Plan.
E. Comments received on population and water demand projections will be reviewed by HDR and summarized for the SCTRWPG. The SCTRWPG will direct HDR as to which, if any, revisions should be prepared for submission to the TWDB. HDR will develop revised population and water demand projections for those entities at the direction of the SCTRWPG, according to criteria for requesting revisions to draft population and water demand projections described in Section 4.2.5 of the Guidelines for Regional Water Plan Development.
F. Complete required data elements for TWDB database Form 1 (Sources), Form 2 (Water User Groups), and Form 3 (Wholesale Water Providers).